End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 13 Tone: Reality check and structural reset - The market is transitioning from rally extension to valuation adjustment as supply visibility improves and index signalling takes control • Tier One Index Catching Up to TSI The tier one index has started to adjust downward toward prevailing TSI levels, reflecting a necessary recalibration as Peak Downs remains unsold and Daunia has traded at lower levels • Liquidity Vacuum Creates Controver

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 6 Tone: Supply optionality emerging, rally at a decision point - The upside case now hinges on how much incremental PMV actually shows up in March rather than sentiment alone * Peabody Longwall Ahead of Schedule Peabody announced longwall mining ahead of schedule and is already heard in discussions with end users for at least one March spot cargo. This is the first concrete sign of additional PMV optionality entering the near term windo

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 4 Tone: Floor established upside capped by margins - The market has found a clear base while upside is now increasingly a function of margin tolerance rather than supply panic * GYC Bid Emerges Above Last Done A GYC bid surfaced above the last traded level near 254 FOB, reinforcing the idea that downside is well protected. However, BHP only showed high ash semi hard in the COI and no GYC, keeping the market guessing on true PMV availabi

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 26-28 Tone: Rally pausing, not reversing – Momentum has cooled, but structural tightness keeps the upside case alive pending BHP’s next move. Unsold Peak Downs Weighs on Sentiment: An unsold Peak Downs parcel is tempering the rally sparked by recent Goonyella strength, introducing near-term hesitation at elevated levels. TSI Hesitates Below $250 Despite Strong Bids: TSI remains reluctant to break $252, even as PHCC bids around $252 sur

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 22 Tone: High print, low conviction – A strong physical sale has not translated into broader confidence, leaving the market cautious at elevated levels. TSI February Resists the $250 Level: Despite BHP selling GYC at $250.2 FOB, TSI February has failed to follow through to $250, signalling hesitation from paper participants and a lack of conviction at these heights. Sustainability Questioned: While the traded level was within market ex

Tone: Structurally tight, lag-driven upside risk – Physical scarcity is overpowering paper signals, with operational delays and limited PMV supply compounding near-term tightness. BHP COI Seen Closing Near $245 FOB Despite Softer TSI: Market expects BHP’s COI to clear around $245 FOB, even as TSI trades lower. The disconnect reflects acute physical scarcity, not paper weakness. Very Limited Spot Availability: PMV cargoes are extremely scarce, and chatter around Peak Downs' wa

End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 16 Tone: Calmer headlines, unresolved risk – Immediate fears eased, but the market is now refocusing on duration and magnitude of supply loss rather than isolated incidents. BHP Confirms No Roof Fall: BHP clarified that no roof fall has occurred, helping defuse one of the more alarming rumours circulating earlier in the week and taking some heat out of near-term panic. Rain Risk Shifts the Narrative: Attention has quickly shifted ba

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 14 Tone: Breakout confirmed, upside now the debate – The market has crossed a psychological threshold, and the conversation has decisively shifted from downside risk to upside timing. TSI February Touches $252, Then Pulls Back: TSI Feb surged to $252 before correcting to ~$245, effectively front-running a level the market broadly expected to reach sooner or later. The pullback was profit-taking, not rejection. Rainfall Impact Underesti

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 13 Tone: Tightening and nervy – Weather-led supply risk is turning from a headline into a physical constraint, while alternative supply options are failing to emerge. Australian Rains Begin to Bite: The impact of heavy rainfall across Australia is now being felt more tangibly. Disruptions are compounding what was already a sub-optimal production backdrop, particularly among tier-one producers. End Users Start to Worry: Mills running lo

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 12 Tone: Strategic bearish print, bullish setup  – The trade surprised on price, but the intent appears structural rather than directional. BHP Sells Peak Downs @ $226.5 FOB (Mid-Feb Laycan): BHP sold a mid-February Peak Downs cargo to Javelin at $226.5 FOB , below market expectations , which had been clustering closer to $230+. The level surprised many and immediately reframed near-term price thinking. Interpreted as Index-Anchoring S

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 8–11 Tone: Firm but patient – Market is tight and elevated, yet participants are deliberately waiting for clearer signals on supply response and downstream acceptance. BHP Still Absent, Buyers Not Chasing: BHP remains on the sidelines, but buyers are equally disciplined and not chasing higher levels. The standoff reinforces a tight yet stable market tone. Potential Supply from Glencore and Peabody: Market attention is shifting to possi

End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 7 Tone: Bullish, but China-led futures enthusiasm has yet to fully transmit into Australian physical pricing BHP Remains Absent from the Market: BHP continues to show no visible sign of selling, reinforcing tight spot availability. Market expectation is building that $225 FOB could be the next traded level once a sale materialises. Indian Anti-Dumping Duties Support PHCC Acceptance: India’s anti-dumping duties on steel are allowing

End-of-Day Market Commentary – January 5–6 Tone: Firm and balanced – Tight supply has anchored prices at a new equilibrium, with upside dependent on further disruptions rather than demand growth. Queensland Rains Cloud Production Outlook: Heavy January rainfall in Queensland is starting to affect mine operations and shipment reliability, keeping supply-side risks elevated. Year-End Selling Offsets Contango: At the same time, multiple miners will be active sellers as they rush

End-of-Week Market Summary – November 17–21, 2025 Tone: Supported but vulnerable – FOB holds firm on tightening trader supply and seasonal risks, even as China’s futures-led correction tempers sentiment. FOB PHCC Holds $195–200 Range: Traders’ inventories are thinning out, helping maintain the $195–200 FOB band. The GYC trade at $200.10 FOB sat at the high end of valuations, but the buyer’s earlier $196+ cargo brings its average closer to ~$198 FOB, making the purchase logica

End-of-Day Market Summary – November 6–7, 2025 Tone: Balanced but fragile  – The market remains supported by firm Chinese fundamentals, yet persistent weakness in seaborne liquidity and end-user hesitation caps upside momentum. DCE Volatile, Testing 1,250 Support:  The DCE Jan contract rebounded briefly  before correcting again to test RMB 1,250 , reflecting improving Mongolian inflows  and lower pig iron output . While speculative positioning remains active, underlying steel

Tone: Firm but cautious  – Chinese fundamentals remain tight, with PHCC strength anchored by restocking, though paper and seaborne markets begin to show signs of consolidation after recent highs. Chinese PHCC Strengthens Further:  Domestic Anze PHCC surged to RMB 1,670  as the third round of coke price uptick concluded , reinforcing bullish sentiment. Restocking by coke makers  is expected to continue, keeping spot prices firm  in the near term. DCE Correction with Strong Sup

Tone: Cautious and speculative  – Market remains afloat on trader activity while genuine end-user demand stays subdued, revealing an increasingly fragile balance between sentiment and fundamentals. Ex-Indian Seaborne Demand Filled at Discounts:   Non-Chinese buyers  have been taking discounted index-linked cargoes , but these deals are insufficient to clear the broader seaborne overhang. India’s Demand Sporadic:   Indian mill enquiries are uneven and volume-light , unable to

End-of-Week Market Summary – October 27–31, 2025 Tone: Diverging and uncertain – Market oscillated between policy-driven optimism and fundamental caution, as China-led sentiment met the reality of rising supply and slower end-user momentum. Policy vs. Reality: The week swung sharply between U.S.–China policy enthusiasm and fundamental correction, exposing the fragile balance between macro expectations and physical coal demand. Seaborne Cargo Count Nears 500kt: With miners and

End-of-Day Market Summary – October 24, 2025 Tone: Bullish but cautious – Strong BHP trades capped a positive week, though talk of Chinese steel cuts injected a note of hesitation into an otherwise firm market. BHP Sells Two Saraji Cargoes @ $194.2 FOB: The first Saraji trades of the year concluded at $194.2 FOB, marking a symbolic high point for the week and reaffirming strength in premium hard coking coal (PLV). Chinese Market Holds Firm: Domestic PHCC spot prices remain st

End-of-Day Market Summary – October 22–23, 2025 Tone: Bullish and rebalanced – China’s emergence as the marginal buyer has redefined market dynamics, lifting PLV above PMV and reinforcing confidence across both paper and physical markets. Multiple PLV Cargoes Trade Near $190 FOB: Several PLV parcels were sold to Chinese end users and traders around $190 FOB, underscoring China’s increasing appetite and ability to absorb multiple Australian cargoes. BHP Sells Early-Dec GYC @ ~