End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 26-28

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 26-28

Tone: Rally pausing, not reversing – Momentum has cooled, but structural tightness keeps the upside case alive pending BHP’s next move.

Unsold Peak Downs Weighs on Sentiment:

An unsold Peak Downs parcel is tempering the rally sparked by recent Goonyella strength, introducing near-term hesitation at elevated levels.

TSI Hesitates Below $250 Despite Strong Bids:

TSI remains reluctant to break $252, even as PHCC bids around $252 surface, reflecting caution over follow-through rather than a rejection of value.

Recovering Shipments Cool the Pace:

Improving shipment volumes are easing immediate scarcity fears, helping to slow but not derail the advance.

Upside Still Intact via India GYC-Only Demand:

India’s GYC-only demand is expected to re-emerge, which could reassert upward pressure, especially if substitutes remain limited.

BHP Spot Availability Is the Key Lever:

Near-term pricing is increasingly at the mercy of BHP’s spot releases. If alternative producers stay sidelined, the market retains room to push higher.

Consolidation Before the Next Leg:

The rally appears to be digesting gains rather than topping out; confirmation will come from who sells next and at what size.