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18 March Quick Perspective – PHCC Prior market consensus had been centered around $240 FOB, with $250 viewed as overstretched. Peabody’s release of cargoes then shifted sentiment sharply, dragging the market down by around $20 to the $220 FOB area. With NGYC cargoes now delayed, PLV FOB has entered a recovery phase. That said, upside may remain capped. End users still retain resale optionality, and BHP’s cargo sale last week suggests supply is not tight enough to justify a fu

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End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 13 Tone: Reality check and structural reset - The market is transitioning from rally extension to valuation adjustment as supply visibility improves and index signalling takes control • Tier One Index Catching Up to TSI The tier one index has started to adjust downward toward prevailing TSI levels, reflecting a necessary recalibration as Peak Downs remains unsold and Daunia has traded at lower levels • Liquidity Vacuum Creates Controver

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 6 Tone: Supply optionality emerging, rally at a decision point - The upside case now hinges on how much incremental PMV actually shows up in March rather than sentiment alone * Peabody Longwall Ahead of Schedule Peabody announced longwall mining ahead of schedule and is already heard in discussions with end users for at least one March spot cargo. This is the first concrete sign of additional PMV optionality entering the near term windo

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 4 Tone: Floor established upside capped by margins - The market has found a clear base while upside is now increasingly a function of margin tolerance rather than supply panic * GYC Bid Emerges Above Last Done A GYC bid surfaced above the last traded level near 254 FOB, reinforcing the idea that downside is well protected. However, BHP only showed high ash semi hard in the COI and no GYC, keeping the market guessing on true PMV availabi

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 2 Tone: Momentum stalling but not broken - The rally is losing sharpness as price validation disappoints, yet supply visibility remains thin • Lotus Sells to Jindal Near 253 FOB Lotus concluded a sale to Jindal around 253 FOB, a level that fell short of broader market expectations. The final price surprised many given the preceding bullish tone and has introduced hesitation into near term price thinking • TSI Stable with Mild Selling Pr

Australian Premium Mid-Vol Goonyella trade heard done on 2 Feb at $253.25/mt FOB Australia, laycan 25 Feb - 6 Mar, 75kt.

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Quick Perspective: The market retains a clear path to test $255–260 FOB should primary supply remain constrained. No further PMV cargoes from BHP are visible at this stage, while alternative suppliers remain quiet. Incremental PMV demand from India is expected to surface over the next two weeks, adding pressure to an already lagged demand profile. With cumulative deferred buying now exceeding visible primary supply, the downside appears well defended around $250 FOB, leaving

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End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 26-28 Tone: Rally pausing, not reversing – Momentum has cooled, but structural tightness keeps the upside case alive pending BHP’s next move. Unsold Peak Downs Weighs on Sentiment: An unsold Peak Downs parcel is tempering the rally sparked by recent Goonyella strength, introducing near-term hesitation at elevated levels. TSI Hesitates Below $250 Despite Strong Bids: TSI remains reluctant to break $252, even as PHCC bids around $252 sur

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 22 Tone: High print, low conviction – A strong physical sale has not translated into broader confidence, leaving the market cautious at elevated levels. TSI February Resists the $250 Level: Despite BHP selling GYC at $250.2 FOB, TSI February has failed to follow through to $250, signalling hesitation from paper participants and a lack of conviction at these heights. Sustainability Questioned: While the traded level was within market ex

Tone: Structurally tight, lag-driven upside risk – Physical scarcity is overpowering paper signals, with operational delays and limited PMV supply compounding near-term tightness. BHP COI Seen Closing Near $245 FOB Despite Softer TSI: Market expects BHP’s COI to clear around $245 FOB, even as TSI trades lower. The disconnect reflects acute physical scarcity, not paper weakness. Very Limited Spot Availability: PMV cargoes are extremely scarce, and chatter around Peak Downs' wa

On a 100% BMA basis, steelmaking coal production peaked in the June 2025 quarter at ~10.3 Mt, before easing to ~9.7 Mt in September (-5% QoQ) and declining more sharply to ~8.6 Mt in December (-12% QoQ), a cumulative ~17% fall from the June high. While open-cut operations remained solid—supported by the strongest first-half stripping volumes in five years—the trajectory was decisively shaped by underground disruption at Broadmeadow, where deteriorating ground conditions in Q2

End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 16 Tone: Calmer headlines, unresolved risk – Immediate fears eased, but the market is now refocusing on duration and magnitude of supply loss rather than isolated incidents. BHP Confirms No Roof Fall: BHP clarified that no roof fall has occurred, helping defuse one of the more alarming rumours circulating earlier in the week and taking some heat out of near-term panic. Rain Risk Shifts the Narrative: Attention has quickly shifted ba

Disruption Snapshot Force Majeure (FM) – Confirmed Carborough Downs (CD) Stanmore Illawarra Olive Downs Force Majeure – Rumoured Lake Vermont Operational Issues (Mine-Level, Unconfirmed / Developing) Curragh – Production stopped due to roof collapse Saraji – Mine flooded Oaky Creek – Water ingress / flooding concerns Broadmeadow – goaf fall reported Logistics & Infrastructure Goonyella (GYC) rail line – Damage reported, potential throughput impact

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 15 Tone: Elevated and expectant – Sentiment is running ahead of confirmation, with the market now waiting for fixed-price validation to justify the next leg higher. Supposedly Peabody Offers North Goonyella at $260 FOB: As widely anticipated, Peabody surfaced an offer at $260 FOB for North Goonyella, reinforcing the market’s perception of tightening tier-one availability and anchoring upside expectations. GYC Bids Rise, BHP Still Absen

Rumour: Goonyella mine roof collapse at Broadmeadow

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 14 Tone: Breakout confirmed, upside now the debate – The market has crossed a psychological threshold, and the conversation has decisively shifted from downside risk to upside timing. TSI February Touches $252, Then Pulls Back: TSI Feb surged to $252 before correcting to ~$245, effectively front-running a level the market broadly expected to reach sooner or later. The pullback was profit-taking, not rejection. Rainfall Impact Underesti