All Posts

End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 2 Tone: Momentum stalling but not broken - The rally is losing sharpness as price validation disappoints, yet supply visibility remains thin • Lotus Sells to Jindal Near 253 FOB Lotus concluded a sale to Jindal around 253 FOB, a level that fell short of broader market expectations. The final price surprised many given the preceding bullish tone and has introduced hesitation into near term price thinking • TSI Stable with Mild Selling Pr

Australian Premium Mid-Vol Goonyella trade heard done on 2 Feb at $253.25/mt FOB Australia, laycan 25 Feb - 6 Mar, 75kt.

Access to this group in the future will incur a gatekeeping fee. Some intel will only be posted in the WhatsApp group and not here on the website. Please join via the link below (the link will expire in 24 hours): https://chat.whatsapp.com/HtxFkYjX4Z43WW8VbGkYR2?mode=gi_t

The team has received request for a WhatsApp group, instead of Telegram, for more convenient access. Please join via the link below (the link will expire soon): https://chat.whatsapp.com/HtxFkYjX4Z43WW8VbGkYR2?mode=gi_t

Quick Perspective: The market retains a clear path to test $255–260 FOB should primary supply remain constrained. No further PMV cargoes from BHP are visible at this stage, while alternative suppliers remain quiet. Incremental PMV demand from India is expected to surface over the next two weeks, adding pressure to an already lagged demand profile. With cumulative deferred buying now exceeding visible primary supply, the downside appears well defended around $250 FOB, leaving

Met Coal Junkie operates the Submit-Intel feature as an open forum for shared market views and does not endorse individual submissions. Our intention has always been to support market transparency by giving participants a space to share perspectives, while recognising that transparency can be challenging and may affect different interests. Recently, we received feedback on the Submit-Intel page suggesting that the platform was perceived as influencing public opinion; having o

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 26-28 Tone: Rally pausing, not reversing – Momentum has cooled, but structural tightness keeps the upside case alive pending BHP’s next move. Unsold Peak Downs Weighs on Sentiment: An unsold Peak Downs parcel is tempering the rally sparked by recent Goonyella strength, introducing near-term hesitation at elevated levels. TSI Hesitates Below $250 Despite Strong Bids: TSI remains reluctant to break $252, even as PHCC bids around $252 sur

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 22 Tone: High print, low conviction – A strong physical sale has not translated into broader confidence, leaving the market cautious at elevated levels. TSI February Resists the $250 Level: Despite BHP selling GYC at $250.2 FOB, TSI February has failed to follow through to $250, signalling hesitation from paper participants and a lack of conviction at these heights. Sustainability Questioned: While the traded level was within market ex

Tone: Structurally tight, lag-driven upside risk – Physical scarcity is overpowering paper signals, with operational delays and limited PMV supply compounding near-term tightness. BHP COI Seen Closing Near $245 FOB Despite Softer TSI: Market expects BHP’s COI to clear around $245 FOB, even as TSI trades lower. The disconnect reflects acute physical scarcity, not paper weakness. Very Limited Spot Availability: PMV cargoes are extremely scarce, and chatter around Peak Downs' wa

On a 100% BMA basis, steelmaking coal production peaked in the June 2025 quarter at ~10.3 Mt, before easing to ~9.7 Mt in September (-5% QoQ) and declining more sharply to ~8.6 Mt in December (-12% QoQ), a cumulative ~17% fall from the June high. While open-cut operations remained solid—supported by the strongest first-half stripping volumes in five years—the trajectory was decisively shaped by underground disruption at Broadmeadow, where deteriorating ground conditions in Q2

End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 16 Tone: Calmer headlines, unresolved risk – Immediate fears eased, but the market is now refocusing on duration and magnitude of supply loss rather than isolated incidents. BHP Confirms No Roof Fall: BHP clarified that no roof fall has occurred, helping defuse one of the more alarming rumours circulating earlier in the week and taking some heat out of near-term panic. Rain Risk Shifts the Narrative: Attention has quickly shifted ba

Disruption Snapshot Force Majeure (FM) – Confirmed Carborough Downs (CD) Stanmore Illawarra Olive Downs Force Majeure – Rumoured Lake Vermont Operational Issues (Mine-Level, Unconfirmed / Developing) Curragh – Production stopped due to roof collapse Saraji – Mine flooded Oaky Creek – Water ingress / flooding concerns Broadmeadow – goaf fall reported Logistics & Infrastructure Goonyella (GYC) rail line – Damage reported, potential throughput impact

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 15 Tone: Elevated and expectant – Sentiment is running ahead of confirmation, with the market now waiting for fixed-price validation to justify the next leg higher. Supposedly Peabody Offers North Goonyella at $260 FOB: As widely anticipated, Peabody surfaced an offer at $260 FOB for North Goonyella, reinforcing the market’s perception of tightening tier-one availability and anchoring upside expectations. GYC Bids Rise, BHP Still Absen

Rumour: Goonyella mine roof collapse at Broadmeadow

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 14 Tone: Breakout confirmed, upside now the debate – The market has crossed a psychological threshold, and the conversation has decisively shifted from downside risk to upside timing. TSI February Touches $252, Then Pulls Back: TSI Feb surged to $252 before correcting to ~$245, effectively front-running a level the market broadly expected to reach sooner or later. The pullback was profit-taking, not rejection. Rainfall Impact Underesti

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 13 Tone: Tightening and nervy – Weather-led supply risk is turning from a headline into a physical constraint, while alternative supply options are failing to emerge. Australian Rains Begin to Bite: The impact of heavy rainfall across Australia is now being felt more tangibly. Disruptions are compounding what was already a sub-optimal production backdrop, particularly among tier-one producers. End Users Start to Worry: Mills running lo

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 12 Tone: Strategic bearish print, bullish setup  – The trade surprised on price, but the intent appears structural rather than directional. BHP Sells Peak Downs @ $226.5 FOB (Mid-Feb Laycan): BHP sold a mid-February Peak Downs cargo to Javelin at $226.5 FOB , below market expectations , which had been clustering closer to $230+. The level surprised many and immediately reframed near-term price thinking. Interpreted as Index-Anchoring S

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 8–11 Tone: Firm but patient – Market is tight and elevated, yet participants are deliberately waiting for clearer signals on supply response and downstream acceptance. BHP Still Absent, Buyers Not Chasing: BHP remains on the sidelines, but buyers are equally disciplined and not chasing higher levels. The standoff reinforces a tight yet stable market tone. Potential Supply from Glencore and Peabody: Market attention is shifting to possi

Daunia traded near 192 cfr China / 178 fob