End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 8–11

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 8–11

Tone: Firm but patient – Market is tight and elevated, yet participants are deliberately waiting for clearer signals on supply response and downstream acceptance.

BHP Still Absent, Buyers Not Chasing:

BHP remains on the sidelines, but buyers are equally disciplined and not chasing higher levels. The standoff reinforces a tight yet stable market tone.

Potential Supply from Glencore and Peabody:

Market attention is shifting to possible cargoes from Glencore and Peabody, which could reshape PLV–PMV relativity depending on quality, timing, and pricing.

TSI Elevated, Weather-Driven Upside in Focus:

TSI trading near $230, with expectations of $240 should Australian rainfall intensify and disrupt supply. Current FOB levels are, however, approaching Chinese export FOB equivalents, prompting caution.

Key Variables to Monitor:

Further Indian steel price hikes, which would improve PHCC affordability

Alternative PHCC supply entering the seaborne market

Freight movements, which will directly affect FOB netback economics

China as the Wild Card:

Chinese demand remains pivotal as DCE JM chance to try 1300. Absorption of tier-two cargoes could eventually pull demand up into tier one, though not necessarily limited to GYC. The evolution of this dynamic is critical to watch.

Market in a Holding Pattern:

With prices high and liquidity thin, the market is waiting for a clear catalyst—either supply disruption or a decisive demand response—to define the next move.