End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 13

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 13

Tone: Tightening and nervy – Weather-led supply risk is turning from a headline into a physical constraint, while alternative supply options are failing to emerge.

Australian Rains Begin to Bite:

The impact of heavy rainfall across Australia is now being felt more tangibly. Disruptions are compounding what was already a sub-optimal production backdrop, particularly among tier-one producers.

End Users Start to Worry:

Mills running low inventories are becoming visibly uneasy and have begun actively looking for spot cargoes, a shift from last week’s wait-and-see stance.

China Export Parity at Elevated Levels:

Chinese coking coal export parity is now near $250 FOB, but for a real export trade to clear, levels would likely need to be closer to $260 FOB.

Tier-Two Cargoes Struggle to Surface:

The lack of available tier-two PHCC cargoes is becoming more apparent. This absence is expected to spill demand back into tier one, rather than cap prices.

Market Bias Shifts Higher:

With weather risk rising, inventories thin, and substitutes scarce, the balance of risk is skewing upward, even before any panic buying materialises.