End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary– January 12

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 12

Tone: Strategic bearish print, bullish setup – The trade surprised on price, but the intent appears structural rather than directional.

• BHP Sells Peak Downs @ $226.5 FOB (Mid-Feb Laycan): BHP sold a mid-February Peak Downs cargo to Javelin at $226.5 FOB, below market expectations, which had been clustering closer to $230+. The level surprised many and immediately reframed near-term price thinking.

• Interpreted as Index-Anchoring Strategy: A growing consensus is that this sale is deliberately strategic, aimed at cementing the PLV index above $225 at a time when PLV–PMV ambiguity is minimal. By setting a clean PLV reference, BHP reduces noise around quality relativity.

• Bullish Implication for Next GYC Trade: With PLV now clearly anchored, the next Goonyella (PMV) trade is expected to reprice higher, potentially above $230 FOB, as PMV regains its premium without methodological friction.

• PLV–PMV Spread Back in Focus: The possibility of adjusting the PLV–PMV spread is now openly discussed. Importantly, it is the narrative and benchmark mechanics—not immediate fundamentals—that will drive pricing psychology in the coming days.

• Watch the Narrative, Not the Tonnes: Physical supply–demand has not meaningfully changed overnight. What matters now is how PLV and PMV are framed by PRAs and traders, and whether the market accepts a structurally higher PMV premium going forward.