Quick Perspective: The market retains a clear path to test $255–260 FOB should primary supply remain constrained. No further PMV cargoes from BHP are visible at this stage, while alternative suppliers remain quiet. Incremental PMV demand from India is expected to surface over the next two weeks, adding pressure to an already lagged demand profile. With cumulative deferred buying now exceeding visible primary supply, the downside appears well defended around $250 FOB, leaving

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 12 Tone: Strategic bearish print, bullish setup  – The trade surprised on price, but the intent appears structural rather than directional. BHP Sells Peak Downs @ $226.5 FOB (Mid-Feb Laycan): BHP sold a mid-February Peak Downs cargo to Javelin at $226.5 FOB , below market expectations , which had been clustering closer to $230+. The level surprised many and immediately reframed near-term price thinking. Interpreted as Index-Anchoring S

Quick Perspective: Holding the Line at 220: Supply Optimism Meets Weather Risk PLV 220 FOB remains broadly balanced for now, until Peabody, Illawarra and BHP resumes meaningful selling. On the demand side, several end-users are struggling to digest >230 CFR levels for PHCC, though near-term relief may emerge as new cargoes are fixed with slightly lower freight. The backwardated paper curve is already pricing in post-longwall supply normalization from BHP and Illawarra, as wel

With proper blending, 220 FOB GYC will give a blended coal cost below 200 and coke below 300. 220 fob indo coke is near 320 landed with duties in India. ​ ​So is gyc undervalued now given the absence of miner selling indication?

Hay Point freight dropped drastically. Should PLV FOB and CFR India meet in the middle?

Quick Perspective: PLV FOB shifts toward 220 amid absence of miner selling PLV FOB has repriced higher toward 220 as miner selling remains notably absent. The Indian market is now late to recognise the emerging supply crunch, with several end users still uncovered. Chinese re-loads remain uncompetitive once quality degradation is priced in, limiting their effectiveness as a ceiling to FOB values. Meanwhile, Chinese end users have also entered a restocking phase, driving China

PLV FOB remains firm with multiple PHCC buyers in India and Southeast Asia still uncovered. Branded miner supply is thin, and while Chinese reloads continue pushing hard to attract interest, their ability to satisfy regional demand is uneven. SEA buyers may consider these reloads, but Indian appetite for such tonnes is limited, leaving the market structurally short of GYC in the near term. With genuine demand still to be filled and limited miner-direct liquidity, the PLV FOB

Quick Perspective: TSI Jan is trading at the upper band near 209, following today’s 206.51 FOB GYC trade, but is likely to meet resistance shortly. The opportunistic 210 FOB China PHCC offers amid rapidly falling spot physical prices in domestic China should act as a natural brake on further PLV FOB gains.

Quick Perspective: PHCC pushes 205–210 FOB alongside a ~230 CFR India deal, within expectation . Soft Indian steel hasn’t translated into downside pressure yet as buyers remain uncovered for January, and traders' positions thin out. Until miners start offering more Jan tons, the market stays propped up.

FOB market has broken above $200, supported by the emergence of ex-India demand. Fresh SEA buying interest for 1–2 PMX of GYC is now competing directly with the two traders already holding GYC position cargoes — on top of India’s ongoing GYC requirements. With demand stacking up against limited December/January GYC availability, the market is now positioned to test the $205–210 FOB range in the near term.

Quick Perspective Market continues to trade within a 195–200 FOB band, but the drivers have shifted. Earlier on, support came mainly from firm Chinese PHCC values. However, with DCE softening, arb-based cargoes have turned competitive again — illustrated by the 205 CFR China trade from an arb trader to an end user. As highlighted before, these arb cargoes are limited in volume, and the repeatability of 205 CFR is highly questionable from the seller side. Today, support for th

Market View (Short-Term Outlook) The market is trading within a narrow 195–200 USD/t FOB range  in the near term. China:  Spot sentiment remains firm with a tightly balanced supply–demand picture. Domestic spot Shanxi PHCC is already trading at 210–220 USD/t FOB equivalent , but end users are reluctant to lift seaborne PLV above 195 FOB , staying anchored to long-term contracts. As a result, 195 FOB acts as a strong floor , while 200 FOB stands as a psychological resistance  

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Nothing beyond expectations from the safety meeting in Beijing

Many positive news out of China, DCE Jan may chase previous high near 1320