Quick perspective: 190 FOB as ceiling?

Market Perspective – August Outlook

FOB Price Outlook

FOB market likely to test the 190–195 FOB band only if either emerging Indian demand or a further Chinese coke price hike materializes in the second half of August. If neither catalyst occurs, 190 FOB will solidify as strong resistance for physical cargoes.

India

• No visible post-monsoon restocking yet.

• Limited infrastructure project spending.

• Domestic steel prices remain under pressure with estimated EBITDA now under 10%.

China

• Steel inventories continue to build and risk of slowdown in steel export orders.

• Further round of coke price hikes hinges on the level of pig iron output and coke production ahead of and during the early September Parade.

  
  

• Some mills have turned loss-making due to raw material cost increases.

• Anti-involution logic: focus is on supporting downstream finished product manufacturers to ensure survival. Strong resistance to raw material price rises will emerge if steel mill profitability is squeezed further.