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Quick Perspective: Holding the Line at 220: Supply Optimism Meets Weather Risk

  • Writer: Met Coal Junkie
    Met Coal Junkie
  • Dec 26, 2025
  • 1 min read

Quick Perspective: Holding the Line at 220: Supply Optimism Meets Weather Risk


PLV 220 FOB remains broadly balanced for now, until Peabody, Illawarra and BHP resumes meaningful selling.


On the demand side, several end-users are struggling to digest >230 CFR levels for PHCC, though near-term relief may emerge as new cargoes are fixed with slightly lower freight.


The backwardated paper curve is already pricing in post-longwall supply normalization from BHP and Illawarra, as well as Peabody's longwall production.


That said, heavier rainfall across key producing regions is a developing risk and warrants close monitoring for potential supply disruptions.

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