Quick Perspective: China sets 195 FOB floor
- Met Coal Junkie
- Nov 5
- 1 min read
Market View (Short-Term Outlook)
The market is trading within a narrow 195–200 USD/t FOB range in the near term.
China: Spot sentiment remains firm with a tightly balanced supply–demand picture. Domestic spot Shanxi PHCC is already trading at 210–220 USD/t FOB equivalent, but end users are reluctant to lift seaborne PLV above 195 FOB, staying anchored to long-term contracts. As a result, 195 FOB acts as a strong floor, while 200 FOB stands as a psychological resistance - a breakout would likely require another 100 yuan uptick in Chinese physical prices, which is not unlikely given ongoing domestic tightness.
Paper Market: DCE activity has cooled a little as market focuses on Mongolian inflows and expectations of crude steel production cuts, reducing immediate speculative momentum for seaborne cargoes.
Ex-China Demand: Beyond China and India, spot demand is thin. Formosa and NISCO recent tenders were filled at roughly 98 % index-linked levels, reflecting healthy seaborne supplies.
India: Demand remains steady with occasional inquiries up to 1 PMX size, though supply is comfortable and no major tightness is seen.
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