End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 19–21

Tone: Structurally tight, lag-driven upside risk – Physical scarcity is overpowering paper signals, with operational delays and limited PMV supply compounding near-term tightness.

BHP COI Seen Closing Near $245 FOB Despite Softer TSI:

Market expects BHP’s COI to clear around $245 FOB, even as TSI trades lower. The disconnect reflects acute physical scarcity, not paper weakness.

Very Limited Spot Availability:

PMV cargoes are extremely scarce, and chatter around Peak Downs' washplant is now influencing PLV supply expectations, blunting the case for PLV–PMV widening in the near term.

Longwall Deferral Tightens Q1 Supply:

BHP’s decision to defer the GYC longwall move into Jan–Mar materially tightens Q1 spot availability, pushing effective supply further into the future and amplifying lag effects.

Peabody Cargo Insufficient for India’s Needs:

A single Peabody PMV cargo does little to ease the situation; India typically requires 3–4 PMV cargoes per month, leaving a clear shortfall.

Indian Steel Prices Rising, Substitution in Focus:

With Indian steel prices improving, mills are likely to snap up cheaper Indonesian coke and secure additional Australian PHCC to keep operations running, reinforcing demand resilience.

Physical Leads, Paper Follows:

The market remains supply-led, with physical constraints dictating price direction. Paper softness is secondary unless it is validated by a meaningful increase in spot availability.