Panic Fades, Uncertainty Lingers as Market Weighs Depth and Duration of Disruption | End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 16

End-of-Day PHCC Market Commentary – January 16

Tone: Calmer headlines, unresolved risk – Immediate fears eased, but the market is now refocusing on duration and magnitude of supply loss rather than isolated incidents.

BHP Confirms No Roof Fall:

BHP clarified that no roof fall has occurred, helping defuse one of the more alarming rumours circulating earlier in the week and taking some heat out of near-term panic.

Rain Risk Shifts the Narrative:

Attention has quickly shifted back to forecasted rainfall in Australia over the coming weeks. While no new disruptions are confirmed, the risk of prolonged weather impact remains firmly on the table.

DBCT Loading Observed:

DBCT was seen loading vessels, providing some reassurance that logistics are functioning. However, this does not negate the broader question of mine-side recovery speed.

Key Question: Duration and Lost Tonnage:

The market is now asking how long the catch-up will take and how many tonnes have been genuinely lost versus merely delayed. This distinction will be critical in determining whether current price strength consolidates or extends.