End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 14

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 14

Tone: Breakout confirmed, upside now the debate – The market has crossed a psychological threshold, and the conversation has decisively shifted from downside risk to upside timing.

TSI February Touches $252, Then Pulls Back:

TSI Feb surged to $252 before correcting to ~$245, effectively front-running a level the market broadly expected to reach sooner or later. The pullback was profit-taking, not rejection.

Rainfall Impact Underestimated Until Now:

The market is only now fully digesting the severity of last week’s rainfall, with multiple open-cut mines submerged and rail operations also affected. Disruptions are no longer theoretical.

Supply Risk Escalates Beyond Tier Two:

With incoming force majeure declarations from tier-two mines, attention has shifted squarely to tier-one producers, which are now under heightened scrutiny for further operational impacts.

Paper Has Done the Discovery First:

Having now touched the $250 level on paper, the market has effectively resolved the “can we get there” question. The structural damage to supply suggests this move was earned, not speculative.

The Real Question Has Changed:

The debate is no longer about correcting back to $220, but rather whether the next destination is $280 and how quickly. Timing will hinge on the duration of weather disruption and the depth of forced buying from low-inventory end users.

Market Psychology Shifts:

Sentiment has pivoted decisively from defensive to anticipatory, with participants now focused on how much supply is truly lost, not just delayed.