PHCC at an Inflection Point: Strong Paper, Aggressive Offers, No Deal Yet | End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 15

End-of-Day PHCC Market Summary – January 15

Tone: Elevated and expectant – Sentiment is running ahead of confirmation, with the market now waiting for fixed-price validation to justify the next leg higher.

Supposedly Peabody Offers North Goonyella at $260 FOB:

As widely anticipated, Peabody surfaced an offer at $260 FOB for North Goonyella, reinforcing the market’s perception of tightening tier-one availability and anchoring upside expectations.

GYC Bids Rise, BHP Still Absent:

Bids for Goonyella climbed to $232 FOB, yet BHP continues to show no sign of offering GYC, prolonging uncertainty and amplifying nervousness among short-positioned buyers.

Paper Reasserts Strength:

TSI February traded back up to ~$252, driven by roof-fall rumours and additional tier-two force majeure declarations, further stoking supply anxiety.

Focus Shifts to Trade Validation:

Market attention has turned to how the $226.5 FOB Peak Downs trade is holding up in secondary discussions, and whether Glencore is concurrently offering prime coals, which would provide a clearer read on true clearing levels.

Waiting for Fixed-Price Confirmation:

Despite strong paper and aggressive offers, the market is clearly awaiting confirmation via fixed-price physical deals before fully committing to higher price expectations.