End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 6
- Met Coal Junkie
- 5 hours ago
- 2 min read
End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 6
Tone: Supply optionality emerging, rally at a decision point - The upside case now hinges on how much incremental PMV actually shows up in March rather than sentiment alone
* Peabody Longwall Ahead of Schedule
Peabody announced longwall mining ahead of schedule and is already heard in discussions with end users for at least one March spot cargo. This is the first concrete sign of additional PMV optionality entering the near term window
* March Supply Scenarios Matter
If Peabody manages to place up to three North Goonyella cargoes in March, the rally is likely to stall temporarily as supply visibly improves.
If only one cargo materialises, the market likely still has room to move higher, especially with BHP visibility limited to potentially just one GYC cargo
* BHP Still the Swing Factor
With BHP spot visibility remaining thin, the balance of power still leans toward sellers unless multiple PMV cargoes are confirmed across producers
* PLV Weakness Does Not Change the Index Story
Rumours of mid February Peak Downs being offered at a discount to index highlight ongoing weakness in the PLV segment, but the price level itself is not structurally important. Given the laycan sits outside the Platts pricing window, any discounted PLV trade would not meaningfully affect future index formation.
* Index Outlook Still GYC Led
Despite noise in PLV, the forward index remains anchored to PMV dynamics, and future pricing will continue to be dictated by GYC availability rather than PLV softness
* Market Waiting for Confirmation Not Headlines
The next phase of the market will be determined by actual March PMV placement volumes, not announcements or rumours. Supply reality will decide whether the rally pauses or resumes
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