End-of-Week Market Summary PHCC – October 27–31, 2025

End-of-Week Market Summary – October 27–31, 2025

Tone: Diverging and uncertain – Market oscillated between policy-driven optimism and fundamental caution, as China-led sentiment met the reality of rising supply and slower end-user momentum.

Policy vs. Reality: The week swung sharply between U.S.–China policy enthusiasm and fundamental correction, exposing the fragile balance between macro expectations and physical coal demand.

Seaborne Cargo Count Nears 500kt: With miners and traders both active, supply surged, yet China remains the marginal absorber, cushioning the impact of excess availability.

Speculative Demand Driving Absorption: Much of the recent buying has been speculative rather than end-user driven, as mills remain reluctant to lift above $190 FOB.

Chinese Steel Output Cuts Emerging: Reports of crude steel production curbs in China are starting to surface, potentially tempering the bullish sentiment that carried through mid-October.

Additional Flows to China: The influx of seaborne cargoes, including speculation of possible U.S. coal, has eased prior tightness, suggesting near-term equilibrium rather than shortage.

Turning Point in Sight: The market now stands at an inflection zone — whether $200 FOB becomes a resistance or a support will define the next phase; for now, it feels more like resistance as fundamentals lag sentiment.