End-of-Day Market Commentary PHCC – January 5–6

End-of-Day Market Commentary – January 5–6

Tone: Firm and balanced – Tight supply has anchored prices at a new equilibrium, with upside dependent on further disruptions rather than demand growth.

Queensland Rains Cloud Production Outlook:

Heavy January rainfall in Queensland is starting to affect mine operations and shipment reliability, keeping supply-side risks elevated.

Year-End Selling Offsets Contango:

At the same time, multiple miners will be active sellers as they rush to meet year-end sales and volume objectives, contributing to a backwardated curve structure.

Liquidity Remains Thin:

Market participation is light, with limited spot liquidity amplifying price sensitivity to any marginal changes in supply.

New Price Equilibrium Around $220:

The market appears to have settled around the $220 level, which is now viewed as fair value under current fundamentals. End-user demand has remained consistent and disciplined, providing a stable base for current price levels.

Downside Limited, Upside Conditional:

There is little justification for prices to fall given tight supply and steady demand. Further upside, however, will likely require additional or prolonged supply disruptions, rather than demand-led support.