End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 13
- Met Coal Junkie
- 7 hours ago
- 2 min read
End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 13
Tone: Reality check and structural reset - The market is transitioning from rally extension to valuation adjustment as supply visibility improves and index signalling takes control
• Tier One Index Catching Up to TSI
The tier one index has started to adjust downward toward prevailing TSI levels, reflecting a necessary recalibration as Peak Downs remains unsold and Daunia has traded at lower levels
• Liquidity Vacuum Creates Controversy
The correction occurred amid limited fixed price liquidity, leading to debate over whether the move was technical or fundamental. However, the broader market acknowledges that PHCC valuation had drifted above sustainable levels
• Supply Overhang Now Visible
With Peabody cargoes and US cargoes entering the market, the supply picture has clearly improved. The debate is no longer whether prices correct, but how quickly the adjustment unfolds
• Index Signalling Drives Direction
This week’s drop, despite the absence of meaningful fixed price prints, underscores the signalling power of index movements in shaping market expectations and guiding paper and physical behaviour
• Market Shifts from Scarcity to Rebalancing
The rally phase driven by tightness and weather risk is giving way to a rebalancing phase, where incremental tonnes matter and sentiment aligns more closely with observable supply
• Pace of Correction Remains Uncertain
Participants widely accept that prices must moderate, but the speed of descent will depend on how aggressively sellers press cargoes and how patiently buyers step in
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