End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 4
- Met Coal Junkie
- 2 hours ago
- 2 min read
End of Day PHCC Market Summary February 4
Tone: Floor established upside capped by margins - The market has found a clear base while upside is now increasingly a function of margin tolerance rather than supply panic
* GYC Bid Emerges Above Last Done
A GYC bid surfaced above the last traded level near 254 FOB, reinforcing the idea that downside is well protected. However, BHP only showed high ash semi hard in the COI and no GYC, keeping the market guessing on true PMV availability
* Clear Market Floor Identified
The market is now broadly aligned that the bottom sits near 250 CFR India or roughly 235 FOB, a level Indian end users can generally absorb without stress
* 255–260 FOB Still Workable but Margins Thin
At 255–260 FOB, steel margins become thin but remain economically workable, removing any incentive for mills to cut production. This dynamic helps explain why prices are not collapsing despite resistance
* Indian Steel Prices Support Acceptance
Indian steel prices continued their uptrend this week, providing a supportive backdrop for PHCC acceptance even at elevated coal prices
* Peak Downs Impact Limited
The Peak Downs cargo may not clear at a fixed price in time, muting its influence on near term index formation and limiting its bearish impact
* Illawarra Recovery Not Immediately Relevant
While Illawarra is expected to recover production in late February or early March, spot availability remains uncertain and is unlikely to meaningfully ease near term tightness
* Oaky North and Peabody Quiet
Glencore’s Oaky North remains unheard, potentially still affected by earlier water issues. Peabody North GYC, once closely watched, has also gone quiet, keeping supply visibility tight
* Market Watching the Sellers, Not the Buyers
With buyers showing they can accept current levels, the next move will depend squarely on which producer sells next and what quality they choose to show
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