PLV FOB weekly recap 16 April "expect the unexpected" - click to read

PLV FOB Weekly Recap – Structured Summary

Early Week:

• Market started slightly soft as traders digested news of additional Glencore tons.

• Sentiment was cautious, with participants reassessing supply dynamics and pricing in recent bullish narratives.

  
  

Mid-Week:

• Market turned optimistic after rumors of a $187 FOB German Creek deal to Nippon spread.

• BHP launched an early COI ahead of the Good Friday holiday, inviting bids in the $187–188 FOB range.

• The tender attracted strong interest and traded at $189 FOB to Lotus, reinforcing bullish sentiment and confidence in demand.

• Just minutes after BHP's 3:00 PM SGT COI submission deadline, Glencore re-listed a May cargo on globalCOAL, surprising the market.

• This renewed supply visibility created uncertainty about the near-term price direction.

  
  

End-Week:

• On April 17, BHP’s Q3 production report indicated tight spot supply through June, lending medium-term support.

• Overall, while the market is not bearish, it appears the bullish narrative was priced in too quickly, and physical fundamentals are only now starting to catch up.