Weekly PHCC Market Insight: June 9-13 vs June 16–20, 2025

📊 Week-on-Week Market Comparison

Aspect	June 9–13, 2025	June 16–20, 2025	Change / Insight
Oaky North Offers	Fell from $183 → $175 FOB by week’s end	Repeated at $170 FOB, no takers	Price fell further, but still no demand – sentiment deteriorated
GYC Activity	Market expected July GYC indications; resale rumors on North Goonyella	BHP sold GYC at $180.9 FOB, end-July laycan	Trade cleared but failed to inspire bullish tone
Paper Market (TSI)	TSI June traded from 183 → 181; July 179 → 178	Q3 peaked at 178, dropped <177 after BHP deal	Paper rebounded briefly, but follow-through weak
PLV–PMV Dynamics	Gap widening, PLV under more pressure	Continued widening due to more PLV supply and bearish index weight	Index vulnerability persists, PLV drags TSI lower
Chinese Market	3rd round of coke cut; weak phy despite stronger DCE	4th round of coke cut; Q3 LTC prices likely to fall further	Domestic sentiment worsened; pressure on Chinese FOB resellers
SEA/JKT Buying	Opportunistic bids near $170 FOB, but limited execution	No HCC/PHCC spot trades, even with wide bid-offer spreads	Demand dried up despite lower prices
Supply Developments	Satellite data showed mine recovery signs, inventory drawdowns	Ongoing Oaky, Goonyella, and Illawarra developments watched closely	Resale cargoes growing; market not yet absorbing them
Market Tone	Bearish shift amid PLV pressure and resell rumors	Still bearish; overhang now confirmed and weighing more	Confidence weakening further, lack of buying interest notable

🔍 Key Insights

1. Market Absorbing Resell Reality:What started as resell rumors last week became concrete offers this week. Oaky North availability and SEA mill resales are no longer hypothetical.

2. Buyers Retreat Despite Lower Offers:Even with Oaky North dropping to $170 FOB, the bid side remains weak. GlobalCOAL bids fell as low as $161 FOB. SEA and JKT have inquired but not bought.

3. Benchmark Pressure Mounts:The Platts PLV-linked index is under continued pressure, while branded PMV still holds—but divergence is widening and unsustainable if PLV keeps dropping.

4. China’s Weakness Spills Over:Ongoing coke price cuts and expected Q3 LTC reductions reinforce a bearish backdrop, limiting any rebound in FOB interest or TSI.

5. Next Week Is Crucial:With sentiment fragile, whether next week sees key trades (e.g. Oaky North, new GYC offer) will determine if the market finds a floor or slips further.