Weekly PHCC Market Insight: June 23-27 vs June 30– July 4, 2025

🔍 Weekly Market Insight Comparison

Periods:

• June 23–27, 2025

• June 30–July 4, 2025

  
  

📌 1. Sentiment Evolution

	June 23–27	June 30–July 4
Mood	Cautiously stabilizing from bearish lows.	Bullish burst (Jul 2) then quick pullback, ending cautious.
Drivers	DCE rebound, expectations from NDRC, minor signs of floor.	Double PMV trades, China supply reform rumors, followed by PLV resell pressure.
Tone Shift	From pessimism to tentative recovery.	From euphoria to cautious consolidation.

🧠 Insight:Week 1 was a slow climb from a deeply negative base. Week 2 opened with optimism (PMV trades), but the reappearance of Oaky North quickly deflated momentum, showing how fragile and reactive sentiment remains.

🔄 2. Paper Market Performance

	June 23–27	June 30–July 4
TSI July	Steady rise: ~$173 → $176.	Spiked to $183 (Jul 2), pulled back to ~$178 (Jul 4).
PLV–PMV Spread	~Stable wide at $4.5+; modest narrowing.	Brief narrowing on Jul 2 → widened again post-Oaky North.

🧠 Insight:July 2’s PMV-driven rally confirmed paper’s sensitivity to trade cues, but the rapid correction after PLV resells shows paper pricing cannot disconnect from supply pressure for long.

🚢 3. Physical Trade and Supply

	June 23–27	June 30–July 4
PLV (e.g. Oaky North)	Unsold, offered near $170 FOB. Buyers disinterested.	Resold again at $181–183 (Jul 3), slid to $180–181 (Jul 4), risk of sub-$177.
PMV (e.g. GYC, Illawarra)	Rumored offers, limited trade confirmation.	Two confirmed trades:

• M Resources → Rashmi @ $181

• BHP → Vitol @ $186.45

• New Illawarra PMV talk emerging. || Canadian PMV (Re-exports) | Offered FOB China ~ $160, heavily pressuring FOB Aus. | Less visible, but earlier pressure still anchoring expectations. |

  
  

🧠 Insight:Week 2 saw the first high-confidence PMV trades, validating demand—but PLV remains weak. Brand identity and buyer selectivity are splitting the market, with Elview or Oaky North facing discounts despite high overall demand.

🇨🇳 4. China-Specific Dynamics

	June 23–27	June 30–July 4
DCE Futures	Rose from RMB 800 → 850 on tightening domestic supply and NDRC anticipation.	Corrected on mine recovery news → rebounded on supply reform rumors. Ended near RMB 850.
Coke Price Moves	4th round of coke price cuts completed. Stabilization expected.	Q3 LTC cuts of $20–25/t announced. Spot prices held firm despite term pressure.
Environmental Watch	Not highlighted.	Tangshan pollution alerts added risk layer (no cuts yet).

🧠 Insight:DCE action continued to anchor market tone, but increasingly decoupled from real trade. Despite LTC price cuts, Chinese spot demand remained healthy, suggesting supply—not price—is the key concern in China.

⚖️ 5. Index Risk & Outlook

	June 23–27	June 30–July 4
Index Risk	Modest downside capped by rising paper and DCE.	High volatility risk — spike in PMV → re-emergence of PLV → spread widens again.
Key Spread	PLV–PMV ~$4.5 wide, stable	Narrowed briefly (~$3) on July 2
Benchmark Pressure	CFR/FOB disconnect hit $30+, raising index credibility concerns.	Index direction now tied closely to whether PLV resells are transacted at <$177.

🧠 Insight:Week 1 was a foundation week. Week 2 flirted with recovery but was undone by PLV oversupply, especially from underperforming brands. The index remains vulnerable to weak PLV trades, despite firm PMV demand.

🧭 Final Summary

Between June 23–27, the market slowly turned constructive as paper stabilized, DCE rose, and Chinese sentiment improved. But FOB physicals—especially PLV—remained weak, dragging on momentum.In June 30–July 4, strong PMV trades sparked a short-lived rally, but optimism was quickly challenged as resell pressure from weaker PLV brands (like Oaky North) resurfaced.The week ended with growing bifurcation: bullish support for premium PMV, and persistent weakness in discounted or oversupplied PLV. Index direction now hinges on whether PLV trades confirm lower—a bearish risk despite strong physical fundamentals elsewhere.