Weekly PHCC Market Insight: June 16-20 vs June 23–27, 2025

📊 Week-on-Week Met Coal Market Comparison: June 16–27, 2025

📈 Key Trends Over the Two Weeks:

Category	Week of June 16–20	Week of June 23–27	WoW Direction
Chinese Sentiment (DCE)	Flat-to-cautious, below RMB 800	Strong rebound to RMB 850 by June 27	⬆️ Improving
TSI Paper Pricing (July)	Hovered $173–175, low conviction	Rebounded to $176 on renewed buying	⬆️ Firming
FOB Market (PLV/PMV)	Heavy with unsold cargoes	Slight recovery on fresh buying talk, GYC	⬆️ Stabilizing
Canadian PMV	Undercutting Aus, capping upside	Still present, re-exports at $165 FOB	➡️ Unchanged
Physical Trade	Few trades; BHP GYC sold at 180.9	GYC above $181 rumored, PMV offer seen	⬆️ Rebounding
Resell Overhang	Dominant, crowding FOB	Still present, but PLV offers improving	⬇️ Easing
Market Tone	Pressured, bearish, oversupplied	Turning constructive, cautiously bullish	⬆️ Sentiment

🧠 Insights & Interpretation

1. China-Led Sentiment Shift

• DCE Sept contract surged from sub-RMB 800 on June 16 to RMB 850 by June 27.

• This signals a clear turnaround in Chinese confidence, underpinned by domestic coal tightening and robust steel output.

  
  

2. FOB Price Floor Forming

• TSI July rebounded from $173–174 to $176; Q3 also inched up to $177.

• Supported by short covering, improved risk appetite, and potential GYC trades above $181, this indicates FOB paper may have found its floor.

  
  

3. PMV/PLV Spread Realignment Underway

• Illawarra PMV offered back into India, suggesting return of Australian PMV, possibly narrowing the PLV–PMV spread.

• Canadian PMV still acts as a cap (~$165 FOB re-exported), but branded PLV like Saraji is now clearly outperforming Elkview, with >$12 spread.

  
  

4. Physical Market Thawing

• From zero trades and unmatched bids mid-month, physical deals (BHP GYC, potential GYC at >$181) and follow-up offers show early signs of demand recovery, especially from India.

  
  

5. Resell Overhang Still a Risk

• While heavy resell cargoes dominated mid-June sentiment, improved buying interest and lower stocks are slowly clearing overhang, but brand-specific price gaps remain wide.

  
  

📌 Summary View:

The market has moved from defensive to cautiously constructive. Chinese futures rallied strongly, paper pricing rebounded, and physical market interest—especially in branded GYC—has rekindled optimism. Risks remain from competitive Canadian cargoes and unsold Australian supply, but momentum is shifting toward stability and potential upside if Indian buying and GYC confidence hold.