Weekly PHCC Market Insight: June 2–7 vs June 9–13, 2025
- Met Coal Junkie
- Jun 13
- 2 min read
Weekly Market Insight: June 2–7 vs June 9–13, 2025
Sentiment Overview
Week | Summary |
June 2–7 | Bearish but structured: Initial Oaky North resales triggered a shift to oversupply narrative. PMV remained tight, but PLV pressure dominated. |
June 9–13 | Deepening bearish sentiment: Resale flood intensified, FOB-CFR gap widened, and market psychology flipped fully bearish. Buyers became passive. |
Key Drivers Comparison
Category | June 2–7 Highlights | June 9–13 Highlights |
Oaky North Resales | Initial offers dropped from $187 to $181 FOB. Confirmed trade to Tata at $181. More Chinese resales anticipated. | Offers drifted as low as $175 FOB. Chinese mills aggressively reselling ahead of expected Q3 LTC cuts. |
PLV Index Pressure | PLV-based index dragged down by Oaky North even as PMV held firm. | PLV-linked offers dominate index downside. Opportunistic bids seen near $170 but unconvincing. |
PMV vs PLV Divergence | PMV held up with Indian demand and GYC support. Talk of structural tightness. | PMV tightness still acknowledged, but not enough to stop broader sentiment slide led by PLV resales. |
FOB-CFR Arbitrage | FOB-CFR spread widened but less exploited. Tension over index validity surfaced. | Arbitrage fully exploited. Even Canadian and Mongolian cargoes redirected to FOB. |
BHP Activity | BHP sold GYC mid-July at $193. No new PMX/GYC offers afterward. | BHP remained silent. Lack of branded spot visibility added uncertainty and dampened PMV price defense. |
Chinese Fundamentals | Coke price cuts, bearish domestic met coal sentiment, DCE divergence from physical. | Continued weakness in domestic prices. Chinese mills favoring local procurement over offshore cargoes. |
Alternative Supply | Illawarra and other potential PMV supplies were speculative. | Illawarra August cargo rumors gained traction. Chinese & Mongolian FOB exports added to pressure. |
Buyer Behavior | Buyers were cautious but responsive to firm GYC. | Buyers now passive or waiting for panic-selling; market "heavy" with few willing to act at current offers. |
Weekly Insight Summary
🔻 June 2–7 Recap
Turning Point Initiated: The week saw sentiment pivot from balanced to structurally bearish, triggered by confirmed Oaky North resales and signs of trader liquidation.
Split Market: Branded PMV held its ground, but PLV weakness began setting the tone for benchmarks. Buyers were still willing to engage near $180-183 for GYC.
Index Vulnerability: Concerns grew over the gap between actual traded levels and index reporting due to resale distortions.
🔻 June 9–13 Recap
Flood of Resales: The market was overwhelmed by opportunistic selling—from Chinese mills, Canadians, Mongolians—driven by the wide FOB-CFR arbitrage.
Loss of Confidence in Branded Premium: Even loyal GYC users hesitated to pay up, knowing abundant cheaper substitutes were floating.
Crisis of Conviction: No strong buying or selling emerged. Market waits for capitulation, and any floor will need fresh fundamentals or end-user intervention.
Conclusion: Erosion of Market Structure
The first week (June 2–7) marked the strategic breakdown of support levels due to oversupply signs, but branded PMV still gave the market some structure.
The second week (June 9–13) transitioned into tactical chaos, as the market no longer trusted branded premiums, and sellers exploited arbitrage routes. Confidence collapsed, and sentiment now hinges entirely on whether further supply will be absorbed or continue to drown bids.
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