Week 26, 2025 Result - Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index, PHCC Sentiment Indicator
- Met Coal Junkie
- Jun 26
- 3 min read
Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index Week 26: 22.19, -18.17 (Week 25: 40.36)
Week 26 of the Junkie Index shows a sharp deterioration in market sentiment, dropping to 22.19 from 40.36, the lowest since index debut. Traders and steel mills led the collapse, signaling deep caution and a lack of conviction in the physical market. While analysts showed slight optimism, and financials stayed moderately positive, their support wasn’t enough to offset growing concern from miners and buyers. With no PMV trades, weak follow-through, and paper gains fading, the market appears structurally fragile and increasingly biased toward further downside.
⚠️ Caution: Timing Mismatch With China
Chinese sentiment has clearly picked up after the close of the survey. Given that it often takes time for optimism in China to filter through to the seaborne FOB market, this week's low index may understate the true tone. The market may not be as bearish as the headline number suggests.
🔍 How to Read the Index:
>70 → Bullish (tightness, demand > supply)
50–70 → Neutral to slightly bullish
<50 → Bearish (oversupply, weaker sentiment)
📊 Headline Index Score
Week 26 Index: 22.19
Week 25 Index: 40.36
Week 24 Index: 29.00
Week 23 Index: 48.54
Week 22 Index: 30.78
Week 21 Index: 58.18
Week 20 Index: 46.56
📊 Junkie Index – Week 26
Index Score: 22.19
Change from Week 25 (40.36): 🔻 -18.17 points
Interpretation: 🟥 Bearish sentiment deepens — weakest since index debut
📉 Week-on-Week Comparison
Role | Wk25 Score | Wk26 Score | Δ Change | Commentary |
Traders | 31.25 | 6.25 | 🔻 –25.00 | Sharp deterioration — likely reacting to weak bid follow-through and physical trade inactivity |
Analysts | 31.25 | 37.50 | ⬆️ +6.25 | Small recovery — but not confident enough to turn overall market |
Miners | 34.38 | 25.00 | 🔻 –9.38 | Growing concern about demand slack, especially with PMV absent and buyers retreating |
Financials | 62.50 | 50.00 | 🔻 –12.50 | Pullback in paper-side optimism — recent gains may have lacked conviction |
Steel Mills | 45.83 | 12.50 | 🔻 –33.33 | Collapse in confidence — signals extreme caution or widespread disengagement from seaborne spot market |
🧠 Interpretation Summary
The bounce in Week 25 was not sustained. Sentiment has now dropped to one of the lowest levels since the index started.
Traders and mills led the sentiment collapse, reinforcing that the physical market is lacking both conviction and direction.
Miners are worried again, possibly preparing for a repricing event or weaker demand in July books.
Financials remain neutral-to-hopeful, but are no longer enough to lift the whole index.
🧭 Key Takeaways
Steel mills’ collapse in sentiment is notable — either inventory is too high, or restocking has been pushed out.
Paper optimism has cooled, suggesting last week’s strength was speculative or short-covering rather than price-led.
No new high-priced trades or PMV activity during the index period → market remains structurally weak.
With volume increasing but conviction dropping, bearish bias is starting to solidify.
📌 Final Note:
Week 26 shows that the market has lost faith in a near-term recovery, despite past paper strength. Without real demand from mills or PMV, sentiment remains fragile and vulnerable to further downside.
Thank You for Participating!
Thank you for contributing to the previous run of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index.
We’re kicking off the next round of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index here with a revised timing:
🕙 Start: 1st July, 10:00 AM (GMT +9) 📊 Results Release: 3rd July, 10:00 AM (GMT +9)
Your input continues to be essential in capturing real market sentiment across the PHCC value chain. The survey takes just 60 seconds — and it adds real value.
Let’s keep it going — and build something truly useful together.
Comments