Week 25, 2025 Result - Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index, PHCC Sentiment Indicator

Met Coal Junkie
Jun 19
2 min read

Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index Week 25: 40.36, +11.36 (Week 24: 29.00)

🔍 How to Read the Index:

>70 → Bullish (tightness, demand > supply)
50–70 → Neutral to slightly bullish
<50 → Bearish (oversupply, weaker sentiment)

Weightage: Miners 25%, Steel Mills 25%, Traders 25%, Financials 15%, Analysts 10

📊 Headline Index Score

Week 25 Index: 40.36
Week 24 Index: 29.00
Week 23 Index: 48.54
Week 22 Index: 30.78
Week 21 Index: 58.18
Week 20 Index: 46.56

📊 Junkie Index – Week 25

Index Score: 40.36
Change from Week 24 (29.00): +11.36 points
Interpretation: 🔹 Slight recovery in sentiment, but tone remains fragile and cautious

📈 Week-on-Week Comparison

Role	Wk24 Score	Wk25 Score	Δ Change	Commentary
Traders	8.30	31.25	⬆️ +22.95	Traders slightly less bearish — possibly covering shorts or seeing better bid interest, but not bullish
Analysts	20.83	31.25	⬆️ +10.42	Some improvement in tone — likely reflecting stabilization in bid-offer flow
Miners	37.50	34.38	🔻 –3.13	Slight pullback — could indicate concern about price pressure or buyers going quiet
Financials	25.00	62.50	⬆️ +37.50	Big sentiment reversal — possibly reacting to recent print action or short squeeze in paper
Steel Mills	46.88	45.83	🔻 –1.05	Essentially unchanged — mills remain neutral, reinforcing “no urgent demand” narrative

🧠 Interpretation Summary

Sentiment rebounded off the bottom, led by a sharp pivot in financial fund views and less pessimism from traders.
However, miners and mills are not buying into the recovery, suggesting fundamentals haven’t shifted — only perception has.
The disconnect between paper and physical remains: funds are reacting fast, while physical-side participants are still cautious.

🔍 Key Observations

Paper-led optimism is likely speculative or relief-driven, not fundamentally backed.
Traders may be sensing a pause in selling pressure, but still aren’t seeing bullish conviction.
Miners staying flat-to-weaker could hint at reluctant price cuts ahead if mills remain sidelined.
Steel mills continue to anchor the tone — no PMV = no breakout.

🧭 Conclusion

This week’s recovery in the Junkie Index feels more like a sentiment rebound than a shift in physical conviction. If no new trade momentum follows, expect sentiment to plateau or soften again. Watch for signs of life in PMV demand or miner offer shifts to validate any true turn.

Thank You for Participating!

Thank you for contributing to the previous run of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index.

We’re kicking off the next round of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index here with a revised timing:

🕙 Start: 24th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9) 📊 Results Release: 26th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9)

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