Week 24, 2025 Result - Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index, PHCC Sentiment Indicator
- Met Coal Junkie
- Jun 12
- 2 min read
Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index Week 24: 29.00, -19.54 (Week 23: 48.54)
🔍 How to Read the Index:
>70 → Bullish (tightness, demand > supply)
50–70 → Neutral to slightly bullish
<50 → Bearish (oversupply, weaker sentiment)
📊 Headline Index Score
Week 24 Index: 29.00
Week 23 Index: 48.54
Week 22 Index: 30.78
Week 21 Index: 58.18
Week 20 Index: 46.56
🧠 Market Commentary
Sentiment fell sharply this week, with the Junkie Index plunging to 29.00, marking the lowest reading to date. The data reflects a deepening bearish tone across most segments of the market — even as spot PLV prices haven’t yet materially corrected.
What stands out is the divergence between steel mills and everyone else. While traders, funds, and analysts are firmly bearish, mills remain neutral, not because they are optimistic, but because they see no price movement expected in the short term — especially in the absence of new PMV supply.
In short: the market feels heavy, but quiet — and sentiment is deteriorating faster than price is reacting.
🔍 Group Sentiment Breakdown
Role | Sentiment Score | Interpretation | Commentary |
Traders | 8.30 | 🟥 Extremely bearish | Front-line sellers are seeing weak bids, rising resales, and poor buyer response — anticipating a PLV correction soon. |
Analysts | 20.83 | 🟥 Bearish | Cross-market visibility reveals fading interest and a “wait-and-see” mood, especially from China and India. |
Miners | 37.50 | 🟧 Cautiously bearish | Likely recognizing softer tone but not fully revising offers yet — some still holding back volumes. |
Financials | 25.00 | 🟥 Bearish | Paper market reflects downside risk; spread trades possibly positioning for weakness in July/August. |
Steel Mills | 46.88 | 🟨 Neutral | Sentiment steady due to no new PMV supply — mills are passive, not panicked. |
🔎 Key Insights
Flat PMV activity is anchoring steel mill sentiment, but that may become a lagging signal.
A PLV trade below $177-178 would validate current sentiment — especially among traders and funds.
Anecdotally, some buyers are bidding selectively below index, but sellers are not chasing yet.
📌 Forward Focus:
If PLV holds, it’s due to supply discipline, not demand strength.
If mills remain silent next week, and paper remains soft, a spot reprice may be forced.
Watch sentiment from miners next round — if they turn down with traders, we could see a flush.
Thank You for Participating!
Thank you for contributing to the previous run of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index.
We’re kicking off the next round of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index here with a revised timing:
🕙 Start: 17th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9) 📊 Results Release: 19th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9)
Your input continues to be essential in capturing real market sentiment across the PHCC value chain. The survey takes just 60 seconds — and it adds real value.
Let’s keep it going — and build something truly useful together.
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