Week 23, 2025 Result - Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index, PHCC Sentiment Indicator

Met Coal Junkie
Jun 5
2 min read

Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index Week 23: 48.54, +17.76 (Week 22: 30.78)

🔍 How to Read the Index:

>70 → Bullish (tightness, demand > supply)
50–70 → Neutral to slightly bullish
<50 → Bearish (oversupply, weaker sentiment)

📊 Headline Index Score

Week 23 Index: 48.54
Week 22 Index: 30.78
Week 21 Index: 58.18
📉 Change: +17.76 points

Weightage: Miners 25%, Steel Mills 25%, Traders 25%, Financials 15%, Analysts 10%

📊 Week 23 Sentiment Index

Final Score: 48.54
Previous Week (Week 22): 30.78
📈 Change: +17.76 points

🧠 Market Commentary

Sentiment rebounded meaningfully in Week 23 as the index climbed back to 48.54, reflecting a shift from deeply bearish to nearly neutral tone over the survey window.

This improvement came despite early bearish sentiment, and was notably influenced by a high-priced physical trade that took place mid-survey. The trade appears to have boosted confidence, especially among miners and steel mills, helping lift their sentiment scores to 56.25 and 50 respectively.

Participation also increased post-conference:

More respondents across all roles contributed this week — a sign of renewed market attention and active dialogue following the event.
The conference likely played a dual role: consolidating bearish views early in the week, while also facilitating fresh buying interest and deal flow toward the end.

🔍 Group Sentiment Breakdown

Role	Score	Sentiment	Commentary
Traders	29.17	Still bearish	Traders remain cautious, possibly reacting to Oaky North and Canadian cargoes
Analysts	43.75	Mildly bearish	Observing improving tone but not fully convinced
Miners	56.25	Slightly bullish	Sentiment recovering post-conference, likely reacting to trade at strong levels
Financials	68.75	Bullish	Seeing upside in paper or basis — possibly positioning ahead of physical recovery
Steel Mills	50.00	Neutral	Steady tone — possibly reflecting willingness to pay but limited appetite to chase

🔎 Key Insights

The high-priced trade shifted sentiment materially during the survey period.
Index reflects a recovering but fragile tone — with better outlook from miners and financials, but traders still unconvinced.
A clear contrast with Week 22, where mills scored just 6.25 and traders were already leaning bearish.

📌 Forward Focus:

If more trades clear near or above index, expect trader sentiment to follow upward.
Monitor steel mill consistency — their stability at 50 could signal real demand floor forming.
Financials turning bullish ahead of physical may suggest a short-term price momentum trade forming.

Thank You for Participating!

Thank you for contributing to the previous run of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index.

We’re kicking off the next round of the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index here with a revised timing:

🕙 Start: 10th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9) 📊 Results Release: 12th June, 10:00 AM (GMT +9)

Your input continues to be essential in capturing real market sentiment across the PHCC value chain. The survey takes just 60 seconds — and it adds real value.

Let’s keep it going — and build something truly useful together.