Perspective: Saraji South mine closure, from shock to shrug

In 2012, BHP announced the closure of the Saraji South mine against the backdrop of force majeure from heavy rains and strikes, which fueled fears of supply instability and pushed coking coal prices up from USD 213.5 to 218 FOB in a short span. In 2025, BHP again announced the mine’s closure, but the market barely reacted so far: with no force majeure, no strikes, and a clear backdrop of oversupply, market largely sees it as a cost-control and capacity adjustment move rather than a genuine supply shock.