Oaky Creek Water Inflow Incident May Lose 2-3 PMX of PHCC

Here’s the timeline and estimated production loss from the Oaky Creek underground water inflow incident:

If the recovery is short-term (1–2 weeks), the mine would lose:

• Around 77,000 tonnes of coal for a 1-week suspension (~1 Panamax vessel)

• Around 154,000 tonnes for a 2-week suspension (~2.1 Panamax vessels)

If the recovery takes a medium-term (3–4 weeks):

• About 231,000 tonnes could be lost in 3 weeks (~3.1 Panamax vessels)

• About 308,000 tonnes in 4 weeks (~4.1 Panamax vessels)

If the disruption is long-term (1–3 months):

• A 1-month halt may result in 333,000 tonnes lost (~4.4 Panamax vessels)

• A 2-month delay could lead to 667,000 tonnes lost (~8.9 Panamax vessels)

• A 3-month suspension may cause up to 1,000,000 tonnes in losses (~13.3 Panamax vessels)