End-of-Day Summary PHCC – 28 July 2025

End-of-Day Summary – 28 July 2025

Whiplash Begins – DCE crashes limit-down (-11%) as traders liquidate, physical sentiment braces for correction

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🔻 DCE Sep Crashes Limit Down (-11%) to RMB 1100.5

Massive long liquidation triggered by system margin calls and a loss of confidence.

What began as a sentiment-fueled rally has now reversed violently, with shorts dominating.

Another limit-down in the next session is possible if no intervention is announced.

💡 Physical Prices Steady… for Now

Despite DCE chaos, physical prices are holding temporarily.

However, Chinese end users are backing away from $180 CFR—now bidding closer to $170–175 CFR.

PLV FOB will likely retreat back below $180, especially with oversupply of PMV weighing on fundamentals.

🚢 Supply Pressure Mounts

A cargo of Chinese Gujiao PMV en route to India adds to regional oversupply.

Indian and SEA demand remains weak.

Any hope of further upside in PLV disappears unless miners pull back offer levels.

📉 TSI Cracks Across the Curve

Q4 fell from $215 to $190, and Sep from $210 to $185 in a single session.

TSI Aug now expected to settle at a similar level as July, with sentiment leaning bearish.