End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – September 5, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – September 5, 2025

DCE Surges on Rumors, Despite Spot Weakness – Another wave of anti-involution rumors and safety inspection chatter drove the DCE May contract limit up in the afternoon session. Yet in physicals, Chinese spot prices corrected lower, with Anze sliding toward RMB 1,400.

TSI Rebounds on Sentiment and Bids – TSI paper bounced with Oct back to 190 as DCE enthusiasm spilled over, supported by a Peak Downs market at $187/$190 FOB.

PRA Brand Spreads Under Scrutiny – Goonyella is now priced $0.50 below Peak Downs/Saraji, after artificial swinging brand spreads from $3 to $2 to $3 to -$0.5 in one week. This volatility returned the index to PLV price-setting, effectively pausing Goonyella’s influence.

Benchmark Direction Hinges on Saraji – The next phase of pricing depends on the Peak Downs–Saraji spread. But with no fixed-price Saraji trade since last year, the market faces a benchmark “mission impossible.”

Tone: Confused but cautious, as paper chases rumors while physical prices correct, and methodology debates add another layer of uncertainty.