End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – September 29, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – September 29, 2025

Tone: Split and uncertain – Divergence between bearish Chinese arbers and bullish seaborne traders is creating liquidity in paper, while real fundamentals shift toward cost-driven supply cuts and softer demand signals.

Chinese Arbers Turn Bearish: DCE dropped ~100 RMB from its recent high, pushing Chinese arbitrage players to a bearish stance.

Seaborne Traders Bullish Mid-Q4: In contrast, seaborne traders are positioning for strength in mid-Q4, betting on supply tightening and Indian buying.

Miner Resistance at $190 FOB: Australian miners continue to resist pushing prices lower, holding the $190 FOB line.

Supply Shift: Market has entered a new phase where high-cost tons are being removed, rather than miners ramping average-cost production.

Demand Uncertainty: Anti-dumping measures and softer signals suggest reduced demand, leaving the net impact on Q4 balance unclear.