End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – September 17, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – September 17, 2025

Tone: Diverging sentiment – China remains bullish and spot-focused, while FOB fundamentals stay soft, leaving PLV-PMV spreads fragile and prone to widening.

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Chinese Spot Restocking Keeps Market Firm

Chinese restocking demand continued with Anze trading ¥1,500, expected to stay rangebound until after the National Day. The earlier idea of a drop below ¥1,400 has now faded amid repeated policy interventions and sentiment-led buying.

Traders Question Index Significance

Many Chinese traders argued that no branded Australian PHCC cargoes can be bought at current FOB or CFR benchmarks, signaling that sentiment and willingness to pay sit above published index numbers.

FOB Side Remains Weak

FOB sentiment diverged as rumours surfaced of Vitrinite below $195 CFR India and reports of Vedanta/ESL buying from BHP. Indian demand has not strengthened materially, keeping FOB buyers cautious.

PLV vs PMV Spread Outlook

With Chinese traders willing to pay above CFR index levels, PLV cargoes risk being valued higher, widening the PLV–PMV spread again. However, FOB fundamentals still lack fresh support, leaving spread volatility at the mercy of sentiment.