End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – October 16, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – October 16, 2025

Tone: Defiant and recalibrating – Despite persistent bearish narratives and lower index prints, actual trades continue to reaffirm market strength, prompting reflection on structural pricing distortions.

DCE and TSI Recover in Tandem: DCE Jan rebounded above RMB 1,180, en route to the key 1,200 level, while TSI November climbed back to $195, reinforcing steady underlying sentiment.

BHP Sells Early-Dec GYC @ $190 FOB (Fixed): The 75kt full-fixed trade validated $190 FOB as the market’s real floor, challenging the series of lower PRA assessments that have lagged behind traded reality.

Disconnect Between Index and Reality Widens: The persistent gap between benchmark prices and spot-traded values continues to benefit end users, as the perpetual contango structure pushes monthly index settlements below true market levels.

Implications for Term Contract Negotiations: It remains to be seen whether sellers will adjust 2026 LTC premiums to recapture this man-made arbitrage, but the issue is increasingly hard to ignore.

Confidence Rebuilding: With spot trades consistently proving firmer than reported levels, sentiment is stabilizing as traders and miners reassert pricing discipline.