End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC - May 30, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 30, 2025

Sentiment has flipped bearish, not on actual supply, but on the perception of imminent selling. The market's reaction to a single Oaky North offer—even if unconfirmed—signals just how price-sensitive and reactive the paper market has become.

• Bearish Sentiment Follows Platts Coking Coal Conference: The Platts conference concluded with a distinctly bearish tone, as market participants absorbed signals of recovering supply and potential selling pressure ahead.

• Oaky Creek Recovery Shifts Sentiment: News that Oaky Creek could resume production by end-June caught the market’s attention, and was quickly followed by an unconfirmed offer of Oaky North cargo for 2H July loading. While the authenticity of the offer is disputed, the speed and optics of the move spooked sentiment.

• TSI June Drops Sharply on Surprise Offer: TSI June paper fell to $186, down from $190 the day prior, reflecting swift deterioration in sentiment despite physical fundamentals not yet changing. The move underscores how fragile sentiment is in the current market.

• Market Now Cautious of More Supply Offers: Traders now fear further sell-side action, especially if other mines recovering from longwall moves or maintenance begin to offer cargoes into the July window.