End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – May 23, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 23, 2025

Market fundamentals remain solid and sentiment is improving, especially as steelmakers adjust to elevated pricing. With buy-side support and miner discipline intact, the next directional move hinges on BHP’s post-conference action.

• Goonyella Bought at above $210 CFR India: Indian end users purchased Goonyella coal from Vitol around $210 CFR, totaling over 40kt. Based on freight, the FOB netback is estimated at $192–196, reinforcing firm delivered value for branded Australian PHCC.

• End-User Demand Firm; Trader Inventory Thinning: Indian demand remains consistent, while traders’ GYC positions are drawing down. The market is closely watching BHP, the only branded PMV seller currently active, with its next move post-Platts Conference expected to set direction.

• FOB Aus & CFR China Disjointed: The disconnect between FOB Australia and CFR China is widening. DCE dropped closer to 800 yuan, yet Chinese tier-one PHCC remains uncompetitive, showing little impact on seaborne pricing.

• TSI June Rebounds: TSI June recovered from a low of $186.5 to $188, with expectations to edge closer to the Platts FOB index near $191, supported by consistent physical demand.

• Junkie Index Rises to 58.18 (Prev. 46.56): The Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index rose to 58.18 from 46.56 last week, reflecting a shift in market sentiment. The increase is largely driven by improved confidence from steel mills, suggesting growing acceptance of current FOB price levels in the $190–195 range.

Met Coal Market Week-onWeek Comparison Table

Category	May 10–16, 2025	May 17–23, 2025	Change
Seaborne FOB Activity	One BHP GYC cargo sold at $195.6 FOB; otherwise quiet	Vitol sells >40kt GYC at ~$210 CFR; FOB netback $192–196	↑ Strong CFR trade reinforces FOB valuation
TSI Paper (Front-Month)	Touched $190.5, fell back to $188; higher intraday swings	Rebounded from $186.5 to $188; forward curve flattened	→ Paper stable but less volatile
Chinese Domestic Market	Anze fell to 1,245; DCE tested new lows again	Anze dropped to 1,220; DCE nearing 800 yuan	↓ Further deterioration in Chinese pricing
Indian Demand Behavior	No bid increases as steel prices softened	Consistent demand; new buyers more flexible between Canadian and Australian	↑ Steady demand, buyers more flexible
Trader Sentiment	Tension between traders and end users; no panic	Traders drawing down positions; watching BHP post-conference	↑ Market turning more directional
Coke Market Outlook (China)	First coke cut confirmed; 2–3 more expected	Second round expected soon	→ Bearish tone continues
BHP Activity / GYC Supply	June 21–30 COI shown; unclear if more to come	No new offers; next move expected after Platts conference	→ All eyes on post-conference guidance
Alternative Origins	Chinese/Canadian coals capping sentiment	Still uncompetitive vs Aus; no impact on physical pricing	→ No fundamental impact despite visibility
Overall Market Sentiment	Cautious, directionless; waiting for catalyst	Stable and structurally tight; bullish cues despite China softness	↑ Sentiment stabilizing, mildly firmer
Junkie Sentiment Index	46.56 – Neutral, lacking upside momentum	58.18 – Improving sentiment, driven by mill price acceptance	↑ Sentiment shift upward