End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – May 22, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 22, 2025

The market remains rangebound and structurally tight, with near-term softness driven by DCE but underlying support from limited July availability. Chinese coal presence is growing, but not disruptive to Australian fundamentals.

• Chinese Coking Coal Draws Attention, But Limited Impact: Chinese-origin low-sulfur PHCC (0.8% S) is reportedly being offered around $192 FOB, but remains too expensive to meaningfully replace Australian PHCC in the Indian market. Higher-sulfur Chinese variants are also not priced competitively, limiting their influence on seaborne trade flows.

• Market Rangebound Around $190 FOB; July Spot Looks Tight: The market continues to hover near $190 FOB, but expectations of July spot availability tightening are rising. The planned longwall movements and maintenance schedules across Australian miners are expected to restrict July loadings. Additionally, BHP is reportedly not offering any cargoes until after the Platts Coking Coal Conference, further limiting short-term supply visibility.

• DCE Drops Again; TSI July Dips to $184: The DCE futures market broke another new low, weighing on sentiment. TSI July traded down to $184, but found strong support, indicating buyers are still stepping in below key levels.