End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – May 16, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 16, 2025

The market is in pause mode, showing signs of indecision and two-way risk, with paper volatility increasing but fundamentals lacking a strong catalyst—for now.

• DCE Sep Coking Coal Tests Previous Lows: The DCE September coking coal contract again approached its previous lows, pressured by expectations of declining pig iron production and continued oversupply in China’s domestic coking coal market.

• TSI June Paper Volatile: The TSI June contract climbed to a high of $190.5, before slipping back to $188, reflecting weak Chinese sentiment and a lack of momentum on the physical side.

• Market in Temporary Standstill: Both buyers and sellers are holding off, waiting for clearer signals. With limited spot activity and little incentive to transact, the market has entered a quiet holding phase.

• Waiting for the Next Trigger: While any marginal change in supply or demand next week could tip the balance, some participants believe the market may remain rangebound until the Singapore Coking Coal Conference at the end of May, where clearer direction and forward buying indications could emerge.

Week-on-Week Comparison: May 3–9 vs May 10–16, 2025

Category	May 3–9	May 10–16	Change
Seaborne FOB Activity	Very quiet due to Platts half-day; limited miner offers	BHP sold 40kt GYC at $195.6 FOB; otherwise quiet	↑ Slight uptick from BHP sale
TSI Paper (Front-Month)	Steady between $185.5–187.5; low volatility	Volatile—touched $190.5, fell back to $188	↑ Wider intraday swings
Chinese Domestic Market	Anze coal down to 1,270 yuan	Anze fell further to 1,245 yuan; DCE tested new lows again	↓ Continued weakening
Indian Demand Behavior	Stable bids near $205 CFR; no urgency	No bid increase as HRC fell from $625 to $610	↓ Margin pressure dampens appetite
Coke Market Outlook (China)	First coke cut expected	First cut confirmed; 2–3 more cuts anticipated	↓ Bearish momentum building
BHP / GYC Supply Activity	No COI issued; market waiting for clarity	June 21–30 COI released; unclear if more June GYC to come	↑ Direction emerging, uncertainty remains
Arbitrage / Resale Flows	PMV reselling in India; supply sufficient	Arbitrage active between Canada, Australia, China	→ Active but balanced
Overall Market Sentiment	Balanced, slightly firm	Cautious; could remain flat until Singapore Coking Coal Conference	→ Neutral tone, market indecisive