End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC - May 15, 2025
- Met Coal Junkie
- 12 minutes ago
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End-of-Day Market Summary – May 15, 2025
Market remains supply-balanced and cautious, with no major buying urgency. Sentiment signals—from flat Indian bidding, Chinese softness, and a sub-50 sentiment index—suggest a market lacking strong upward momentum in the near term
Muted Reaction to $195.6 GYC Trade: Despite BHP’s $195.6 FOB GYC trade, market sentiment remained measured. Divergent PRA prints led to mixed interpretations, and the trade did not trigger any notable rally.
Indian Bids Steady as Margins Tighten: Indian buyers are refraining from raising bids for coking coal, holding firm near $205 CFR, as falling steel prices—with HRC down from $625 to $610—are restricting mill margins, limiting their appetite for higher-priced raw materials.
QR Uncertainty Clouds Coke Trade: India’s coke import quota review (QR) is creating uncertainty. Merchant coke makers are reportedly prepared to resell Australian or other PHCC cargoes if the quota is lifted, which could release additional spot supply.
Indonesian Cokeries Buying Non-Australian Prime: While Indonesian cokeries are preparing for restarts, they are opting for non-Australian prime coals, thus not impacting demand for Australian PHCC at this stage.
Q3 Maintenance vs Monsoon Weakness: Concerns over Q3 Australian mining maintenance are surfacing, but are being offset by expected monsoon-related demand declines in India, keeping the forward outlook neutral.
China Braces for More Coke Cuts: China may see 2–3 more rounds of coke price cuts, driven by a sharp increase in domestic coal supply, which points to a potential $10–15/mt downside for met coal.
Junkie Index Debuts at 46.56: The Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index launched with a print of 46.56, reflecting a lack of upside momentum and signaling that PHCC market members are leaning neutral to slightly bearish in their short-term expectations.
PS: Check out the Junkie Met coal Sentiment Index here: https://www.metcoaljunkie.com/post/week-20-2025-result-junkie-met-coal-sentiment-index-phcc-sentiment-indicator
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