End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – May 14, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – May 14, 2025

Market is tight and nervous, with high print from BHP raising eyebrows, yet macro softness and Chinese lows hint at ceiling formation. Supply response in the coming days will define direction.

• BHP Sells GYC Cargo to Vitol at $195.6 FOB (40kt): BHP sold a 40kt GYC parcel to Vitol at $195.6 FOB, with the remaining volume priced index-linked. The fixed price surprised the market on the high side, suggesting ongoing tightness, while the exact premium or discount on the index-linked portion remains undisclosed.

• Index-Linked Component Signals Price Plateau: The use of index-linked pricing—instead of full fixed—may indicate we’re near the top of the current rally, especially amid growing macro and Chinese softness.

• Chinese Prices Continue to Fall: Anze coal dropped to Yuan 1,245, setting a new low, and further undermining confidence in the domestic coke and coal complex.

• TSI Paper Corrects Upward: June TSI rebounded to $190, supported by the BHP fixed-price deal and the perceived lack of available GYC tonnage.

• Tension Rises Between Traders and GYC-Only Buyers: With only 2–3 weeks left for July arrival GYC buyers, any time delay will only be advantageous for the sellers.

• Supply Response Still Unclear: Whether BHP, other PMV producers, or resellers release additional June or early July cargoes will be crucial in determining whether prices consolidate or push higher.

Meanwhile, thank you for the great response to the Junkie Met Coal Sentiment Index!

If you have not already participated, please join here. Results out 15th May, 10AM IST.