End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 5, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 5, 2025

Tense and tactical – The market is stuck between persistent PLV-led weakness and tight PMV supply. Index methodology and the reappearance of alternate Australian PMV supply (like Illawarra) could tilt the balance in either direction.

• Oaky North Offer at $187 FOB, Indian Counter at $180:A 40kt Oaky North resale was offered at $187 FOB, with an Indian buyer countering at $180 FOB. One flagged concern is the uncertain delivery timeline for the cargo—yet PRA assessments continue treating the offer at face value, frustrating some market participants.

• Monthly Resales from China Emerge:The market is now expecting at least one Oaky North resale per month, as Chinese steel mills unload previously contracted cargoes to take advantage of the wide FOB–CFR gap.

• Structural PMV Tightness Remains:Despite the bearish tones from PLV offers, the market acknowledges the limited availability of branded PMV. BHP may need to respond strategically to avoid long-term benchmark erosion caused by weak PLV-linked resales.

• Platts Index Spread Under Spotlight:All eyes are on how Platts handles the PLV–PMV spread, as the benchmark interpretation will influence the TSI and could affect how aggressively Oaky sellers continue to offer.

• Potential Turning Point: Illawarra Supply Watch:A shift in sentiment could emerge if Illawarra cargoes return to the market—but as of now, this remains speculative and timing is uncertain.

  
  

• China Coke Prices Fall Again, More Cuts Likely:China recorded its third round of coke price cuts, with top-charged coke down ¥70 and stamp-charged down ¥50. With healthy coke margins, another 1–2 rounds of cuts are anticipated.

  
  

• China–Japan Coal Trade Rumblings:There is market chatter about potential Chinese coking coal exports to Japan.