End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 4, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 4, 2025

Cautiously firm – GYC trades provide a floor, but PLV-linked resale overhang weighs on sentiment. Paper optimism in China diverges from weak physicals, while branded FOB dynamics threaten to unravel bearish index strategies.

BHP Sells Mid-July GYC to JSPL at $193 FOB (75kt): BHP concluded a deal with JSPL at $193 FOB for a 75kt GYC parcel, scheduled for mid-July laycan. The buyer’s identity triggered typical speculation that JSPL may be buying high for its Mozambique operation—but such suspicions have consistently proven unfounded.

JSPL Track Record as a Bottom Picker: Historically, JSPL’s direct purchases of PHCC have often marked market bottoms, with subsequent price rebounds. This deal, when adjusted for freight, reflects a $208 CFR India level, pointing to steady end-user demand from India.

Market Unmoved Due to Oaky North Overhang: Despite the GYC trade, broader sentiment remains cautious due to the presence of two Oaky North resale cargoes in the market. The seller now faces pressure, as time becomes their only leverage. If PMV-branded cargoes like Goonyella continue to trade firm over the next 1–2 months, the offer-down-to-hit-index strategy may backfire. The index will likely bounce back each time a branded GYC trade resets the benchmark higher.

Chinese Paper Market Shows Enthusiasm, But Physical Still Lags:DCE coking coal futures saw renewed buying interest, but this has not yet translated into physical market support. Meanwhile, some Chinese coke makers are proposing another round of price cuts, though a final conclusion may take time.

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