End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 27, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 27, 2025

Turning constructive – With strong DCE-led Chinese sentiment, potential GYC trade confirmations, and narrowing spreads between paper and physical, the market is showing early signs of recovery, albeit still sensitive to resell pressure and brand-specific supply.

• DCE Coking Coal Approaches RMB 850: Bullish sentiment in China remained strong with Sep DCE futures nearing RMB 850, sustaining upward momentum driven by domestic supply tightening and strong steel production.

• FOB Sentiment Catches Up – TSI July at 176, Q3 at 177: Chinese optimism spilled into FOB paper, with TSI July rebounding to 176 and Q3 inching up to 177, supported by paper buyers and improved risk appetite.

• Rumors of GYC Trade Above $181 FOB in India: A potentially confirmed GYC trade above $181 FOB in the Indian market lifted confidence. If true, miners are expected to hold firm or raise next GYC offers.

• Spot Illawarra PMV Offer Surfaces: Market chatter suggests a spot PMV parcel from Illawarra offered to Indian buyers on index-linked terms, pointing to the return of Australian PMV and possible narrowing of the PLV–PMV spread.

• Chinese PLV and Canadian Re-exports Diverge Sharply: Chinese PLV offers now above $180 FOB, while Canadian PLV (assuming Elview) re-exported from China re-emerged at $165 FOB. The spread between branded PLV (e.g. Saraji) and Elkview is now >$12, reflecting quality and brand preference divergence.