End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 2, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 2, 2025

Deeply bearish — rising resale pressure, speculative miner supply, and potential index recalibration have pulled the rug from under previous support levels.

• Oaky North Resale Triggers Bearish Spiral: Market turned sharply bearish following news that Oaky North, previously contracted FOB index-linked to a Chinese steel mill, is being resold into the open market. Traders anticipate the offer may drop ~$2/day, potentially testing $170 FOB by next week.

• BHP Mid-July GYC Offer Sparks Oversupply Fears: The appearance of a mid-July GYC cargo from BHP has led to speculation that two July GYC shipments may be available. Combined with Oaky North resales, this has shifted sentiment from balance to potential oversupply.

  
  

• Major Traders Have Completed Selling: Key trading houses have reportedly finished liquidating fixed-price positions and are no longer incentivized to defend higher prices. With no interest in pulling the market above their buy-in levels, upside momentum fades.

• Index Pressure Mounts as PMV-PLV Gap Grows: The widening spread between PLV and PMV assessments by major PRAs reinforces expectations that the benchmark PLV index will drift lower with the Oaky North offer.

• No Urgency from Buyers or Sellers: Market participants are on edge, but few are willing to bid or offer decisively until new lows are tested or new trades print.