End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 13, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 13, 2025

13 June Live from Met Coal Junkie

Bearish. Market is overwhelmed with opportunistic resale pressure and rising alternative supply visibility. Confidence in the uniqueness premium of branded PMV is eroding. Buyers are cautious and in no rush.

• FOB-CFR Gap Encourages Creative Flows: The persistent, historically wide gap between FOB Australia and CFR India/China is now actively being exploited. Multiple offers—including from sources not traditionally active on FOB basis—are entering the market.

  
  

• Wave of Australlian Resales Flood Market: A flood of resale cargoes is emerging, led by Chinese steel mills and possibly Southeast Asian end users. A July-loading Oaky North cargo was offered at $175 FOB, lower than recent prints. This confirms mounting pressure from the resell side.

  
  

• Canadian Cargoes Bound for China Now Diverted: Canadian cargoes originally priced off the CFR China index are now being diverted and offered FOB, adding to bearish sentiment and showing sellers’ desire to capture the FOB-CFR arbitrage.

  
  

• Illawarra August Cargo Possibility Gains Traction: As Illawarra mine recovers steadily, August-loading cargoes are rumored to surface, adding further downside risk to PHCC supply tightness assumptions.

  
  

• China & Mongolia Exports Making Noise: Market hears increasing chatter of Chinese PLV and Mongolian PMV coking coal exports offered on FOB China basis. While still unconfirmed, these rumors have enough weight in today’s market to influence sentiment.

  
  

• Implications for Branded PMV: With alternatives now visibly abundant, even GYC-only buyers may hesitate to pay up, especially with resellable alternatives stacking up. This weakens the pricing power of branded supply in the short term.