End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – June 12, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – June 12, 2025

The market is weighed down by Chinese resell pressure. Bearish in the short term but fundamentally conflicted due to PMV tightness. Key turning point depends on the depth and duration of Chinese reselling.

Oaky North Resell Pressure Deepens

Oaky North offers (today at $177 FOB) continue to weigh heavily on the market, with growing expectations of additional cargoes being resold by Chinese steel mills. With Chinese Q3 long-term contract (LTC) prices forecasted to drop, mills are incentivized to prioritize cheaper domestic procurement, fueling the offshore resell wave.

FOB-CFR Gap Dominates Sentiment

Opportunistic bids hover near $170 FOB, but uncertainty looms: will buyers still commit if/when offers actually reach that level? The situation draws parallels with the March European resell event, when offers slid to $170 but buyers disappeared. Market rebounded then due to a lack of follow-through supply—a condition not shared this time.

Structural Divergence Between PLV and PMV

Unlike March, Chinese mills are expected to resell persistently, and PMV remains structurally tight. This divergence creates two-tier sentiment. However, since the benchmark index (Platts/TSI) is PLV-based, it will continue to track downward with Oaky North offers until FOB-CFR alignment satisfies Chinese sellers.

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