End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – July 4, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – July 4, 2025

Market cautiously watching for follow-through weakness in Oaky North as TSI holds steady and Chinese spot remains resilient.

📉 Oaky North Offer Slides to $180–181 FOB

As anticipated, Oaky North resell offers dropped further, testing market appetite at $180–181 FOB. While still within the tradeable zone, the key focus is whether the offer breaches $177 FOB, a level that could start pulling indexes lower and reinforce bearish momentum.

📊 TSI August Holds at $178

Despite supply pressure from PLV resells, TSI August stayed rangebound near $178, reflecting a market in wait-and-see mode. Traders are weighing whether physical weakness will override the previously bullish sentiment from earlier PMV trades.

🇨🇳 China Q3 LTC Sees $20–25/t Cuts – Spot Holds Firm

Chinese steel mills announced Q3 LTC contracts at $20–25/t reductions, broadly in line with expectations. However, spot domestic coking coal prices remain firm, supported by limited mine availability and decent steel margins, reinforcing a more constructive underlying tone.

🧩 Key Market Dynamic

With PLV spot offers falling and Indian PMV spot stable, the PLV–PMV spread may widen again if Oaky North breaches key technical levels. Index downside risk persists, but only if physical trades confirm at lower levels.