End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – July 25, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – July 25, 2025

Tone: Euphoria Peaks – Traders in Control, End Users Lagging

🔹 DCE Sep Hits RMB 1,259 – Fourth Limit-Up in Five Sessions

• DCE Sep futures soared limit-up again to RMB 1,259, maintaining an explosive rally driven by sentiment and macro momentum.

• While bullish momentum continues, intervention risk rises:

  • If sentiment continues unchecked, regulators may step in to cool the market.

  • Most shorts are believed to have already exited, removing one major fuel for further upward spikes.

    
    

🔹 Traders Lead Rally, But End Users Push Back

• A clear divergence is forming:

  • Traders are aggressively bullish, chasing upside and driving both DCE and TSI higher.

  • End users are unwilling to pay current price levels, capping real demand.

  • Traders may soon struggle to exit positions if end-user resistance persists, a classic warning sign.

    
    

🔹 TSI Aug Trades Above $200 – Disconnect from Physical Reality

• TSI Aug traded above $200 FOB, breaking short-term highs.

• However, actual CFR China end-user acceptability remains near $185 CFR, creating a sharp gap.

• Without corresponding physical follow-through, paper rally may lose steam.

  
  

🔹 China Still Supporting Seaborne Market – But Fragile Foundation

• China remains the primary pillar of support:

  • Domestic physical prices and sentiment are strong.

  • However, this is not translating into spot seaborne demand above $200 CFR.

• With ongoing resell activity in FOB market and lack of global demand (e.g., India, SEA), the index may struggle to climb above $200 FOB.