End-of-Day Market Summary PHCC – July 22, 2025

End-of-Day Market Summary – July 22, 2025

Tone: Speculative Frenzy – Policy Talk Ignites Paper, Physical Chases

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🔹 DCE Surges on Policy Speculation, Despite Limited Scope

DCE Sep contract hit limit-up, with strong expectations for another limit-up in the evening session.

The rally was triggered by government signals to curb excess coal production across all regions, though only Xinjiang is currently flagged as overproducing.

Shanxi and other major regions are not yet flagged, but the market has reacted preemptively.

This has resulted in a sentiment-led price spike, disconnected from near-term fundamentals.

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🔹 TSI Rallies with Paper: Aug $198, Sep Near $200

TSI paper jumped in tandem with DCE:

TSI Aug traded close to $198

TSI Sep approaching $200

Momentum is now fully in control, with speculative buying dominating both DCE and SGX.

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🔹 Physical Miners Hold Fire, Offers Withdrawn

Physical bids at $180 FOB now appear outdated, with no signs of miners accepting.

Chinese Tier 1 bids now reported around $170 FOB, with expectations to climb quickly.

Anze physical benchmark expected to test RMB 1,450, which would imply PHCC FOB values above $180 for Chinese buyers.

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🔹 Steel, Coke Markets Reinforce the Bullish Cycle

Chinese steel prices continue to strengthen, offering margin support for higher coal input costs.

Coke spot values are rising, further justifying the rally.